The name 'El Niño' keeps coming up in weather forecasts this year, and the Israel Meteorological Service has warned it may bring a wetter-than-usual fall and winter. But what links a distant ocean to rain in Tel Aviv? Here is an explanation.
El Niño ('the boy' in Spanish) is a phenomenon in which surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific near the equator warm more than usual. Normally steady winds push warm water west toward Asia. In El Niño years the winds weaken and warm water spreads east. That changes how warm, moist air rises into the atmosphere and, through it, air currents worldwide. It recurs every few years and usually lasts about a year.
El Niño's effect is strongest near the Pacific: droughts in Australia and Indonesia, rain and floods in South America. In Israel the effect is indirect and weaker, but according to the Meteorological Service, strong El Niño years have often brought wetter winters here. One model the service published links each degree of sea-surface warming to roughly 11% to 15% more annual rainfall, depending on region.
Here is the important caveat: El Niño does not guarantee a rainy winter. The service itself stresses these are scenarios, not a definite forecast, and that not every strong El Niño year brought Israel an unusual winter. Israel's weather is shaped by many other factors, including the Mediterranean and Europe.
What does AI add? AI models, such as the one the Meteorological Service runs and Google's WeatherNext 3, learn from decades of data and spot patterns hard to compute with traditional methods. They mainly improve forecasts for the coming days and early detection of unusual events, which according to the service can usually be spotted three to five days ahead. Advice for the coming winter: follow the forecast, clean gutters and check drainage, and on stormy days listen to official instructions.
